说实在的,这本书的译名我是颇不喜欢。一开始还以为是介绍华尔街的书,看看了发现不是那么回事儿。作者的着力点在于“随机漫步”上,马尔基尔把基本面分析和技术分析各打50大板,既然股价都是随机的,你们预测有个毛用!因此,A Random Walk Down Wall Street应该翻译为《华尔街的随机漫步》更加贴切!
实际上,从现在的学术研究来看,马尔基尔的一些观点,尤其是对于技术分析的观点过于激进。
不过我们还是回到正题,随机漫步意义何在?
既然价格是随机游走的,那么预测就毫无意义。因此你要做的就是跟上市场的节奏,最好就是买指数基金,买入持有,不要主动操作。
我以为对于散户而言,定期定额定投指数基金是不错的选择。就算价格不是随机的,但是对于散户糟糕的判断能力而言,价格变动对于散户无异于随机。散户的操作往往是瞎猫去碰死耗子,一般都是撞得头破血流。
定投指数基金,你也别老是看股市了,专心工作,让市场来为你盈利。这样当然不可能暴富。你必须将股票看做理财产品,股票就是帮助你保值增值的。
鉴于中国股市总体不行,局部火热的结构性特点,散户最好选择几个不同的指数同时投资,不错过任何结构性行情。沪深300,中证500都买入。
当然,股价的确不是随机游走的,这点是可以肯定的!
“被动,被动,再被动”我说的不是指1966年林彪对陶铸的这句忠告,而是本书作者Burton G. Malkiel对广大劳动人民投资理财的忠告。不要因为所谓的明星股评家评点某股票的有利趋势,股票图形罕见买点,小道消息等总是倒腾自己股票账户里数额不大的金额。那样只能便宜了经纪人和交易所。更不要因为自己听一大姑的二大姨的三邻居的四舅子的五表妹的六婶子的七干妈的八大哥的九姥爷说某某执掌的共同基金过去超高的收益率眼红而频繁的倒腾自己的账户。因此,本书的作者认为积极管理型的基金无论从历史的收益率看还是学术和现实的市场逻辑看都战胜不了消极的指数型基金。所以,把钱投入资产多样化的指数型基金里头后就不要管了,当作没这钱一样过个二十年发现自己的钱包怎么突然膨胀了这么大了。总之,作者告诉没有投资经验的广大劳动人民,投资理财要“被动被动再被动”。不要自作聪明频繁的主动出击。
本书从1973年出版以后到今天正好四十年了,也不容易啦。维基上说作者是1932年出生的,也是八十多岁金融街,学术界的老油条。一看他的照片就是很精明的“老奸巨猾”之辈,在投资公司和大学里的领导岗位上混董事和主席的职位,啧啧啧。本书基本上通篇在讲STOCK,在个人投资生命周期计划里面讲了一点BOND。阅读对象就是广大美国的劳动人民,所以没有什么学术语言,更没有数学公式,很好。
按照书里头说的从七十年代指数基金只有十多亿美元到2006年三万多亿美元,我感觉啊,从七十年代至今如果买被动的指数基金和折价的封闭式基金用历史收益检验是对的。不过对于未来的几十年,大家都买指数基金,我感觉不会那么顺当或者安心。举个例子,比如市场大家都按照指数基金的消极被动策略要调整自己的投资组合,如果一旦市场某些大型股票因为意外事件狂涨狂跌,几万亿数千家指数基金经理都要调整自己的portfolio结果大家都卖出或者买进,市场总体结果是什么样子,这是有前车之鉴的。1987,10股灾有一种观点就是当时很流行的保险投资组合触发大家集体行动。不要说指数基金了,现在对冲基金的排名前十的头寸都越来越同化,难啊,除非别搞股票,或者发展出更高层次的套利思想或者比期权更高一个级别的新玩具,越扯越不像话了。
本书讲STOCK,主要还是场内交易,比较公平民主。最近三十年衍生品的迅速发展是另外一块市场,很显然,这一块市场的规律和STOCK 和BOND是不一样的。而且衍生品在07年以前多场外报价,更隐蔽和定价不准。08年美国财政部就发现有人在switch LIBOR。只不过过几年再抛出来。真是可怕,每天过亿利率衍生品以及derivative ON derivative ON derivative ON 。。。。。。就是靠这个基准利率定价。哎,又扯跑题了。
另外,两千年的安然事件已经警示了广大劳动人民,成千上万的指数基金经理也恐怕会有安然的集体高层贪腐,麦道夫那样的裸泳后显露的千年老妖。这是指犯罪的性质及其恶劣的一拨人。如果指数基金经理自己不是那么守规矩,广大美国劳动人民又怎么会知道呢。再者,如果那些基金经理为了评比竞争的外部压力,存在道德风险等等他们把自己的portfolio里头做点手脚提高年关收益率广大劳动人民又怎么知道呢。。。。。。投资终究是投人,我们国家高官的10万RMB和富商的10万和平民的10万和穷人的10万是不一样的。同样10万的投资收益率千差万别。西方国家只是稍微好点罢了。资本主义经济里头最大的蒙面民主就是一价定律,law of one price,让大家以为大家手中的100美元是一样的,其实不一样。因此,美国股票市场大家买同样的股票,特别是指数基金吃大市,更是民主的表现。中国的话,就别说了,差距太大了。这再讲就要讲政治经济学了,自己的老毛病又犯了。我就是想说,广大中国,美国的劳动人民(我也是)选指数基金也是要慎重,慎重再慎重的,还是要自己多独立思考,想仔细,作者书里头我没看到MALKIEL如此直白的说明此意。
本书翻译的很不错,感觉译者把有些作者开玩笑的方言俚语都翻译出来了。让人捧腹大笑。
The chartist and the fundamentalist are still sneering each other and yelling each other. EMT, MPT, CAPM, APT, Behavioral Finance, (of course, I am not a good reader for not following the advise from Burton to avoid using so many abbreviations. BUT, without the terminology, you expect me to use my investment performance to show I am an expert on investing?) the sophisticated academics including mathematician, physicist are still working hard, assiduously, diligently on these fields, hoping to create a Theory Of Everything in finance, while the Graham and his firm followers shrugged these off, as Warren once said “ And to people that think beta measures risk, the cheaper price would have made it look riskier. This is truly Alice in Wonderland. I have never been able to figure out why it's riskier to buy $400 million worth of properties for $40 million than $80 million.”(Warren has said so many nifty but satiric words about the modern finance theories by help of his CAGR 19.8%)
Wow, it is seems that the investment is a little complex. For many common people, investing, an easy way to make money, is so easily that it can be summed up by only 4 single words “buy low, sell high”. So, investing easily slip to irrational speculating. Then, the tragedies or comedies come up. Should I recall those miserable memories? Burton did this in his book. Burton’s book includes the tulip-bulb craze, the south sea bubble, the magic ‘growth’ during 1960s, the conglomerate boom, the nifty fifties, the high-tech boom during 1980s, the lost decade of Japan, the Internet bubble with the welcome of the new century, and finally the housing bubble in 2008. Wow, what a long list. Is there a real terminal of speculating? :). How easy it was in early 2000, when the tech stock you brought moved persistently higher, to convince yourself that you were an investment genius. How easy it was then to convince yourself that chasing the last period’s best-performing stock was a sure strategy for success. How exhilarating it was to buy a stock at 9:35 and find it had risen 10% percent by a few minutes. Oh, it also will be a little sad that SEC has a limitation on fluctuation. Burton said that all of these strategies ended in disaster. I am hesitate and finally afraid to say this, surrounded by the people who hold 川润股份,斯米克for another一字涨停, and by the investor who will give a junk company 100PE.
“How about investing just slip a little to speculating and result in rational speculating?”
“Oh, do you say that using chart and some mysterious theory to build a castle in the air?”
“Yes”
“:)”
You stop me by saying that you are a rational investor. So, you turn to Graham and Warren. CAGR 19.8% is so charming that almost nobody can refuse the easy investing method of the Sage of Ohama. You start reading the boring annual, obtaining nothing but a stack of magnificent numbers. Following the principles that summed by the great valuable investors, you wish you bought the company(following the principles, using company instead of stock) that has a margin of safety, a so-called moat, a health growth. You scrupulously play the holes in your decision paper strip. You buy the shares of company and just hold. You collect all the information about the product of the company. You experience the service of the company. You finally become the expert of the industry which the company belong to. But, you just can not (this is a little chinglish) beat the market. Oh, this sound a little sad. Ok, you can beat the market…………..……:)….sometimes. But from a long time horizon, you are everything but Buffet.
If you are rational enough and academic enough, you certainly want to show you are different. So, you use the dazzling, complicated mathematic formulas and models, something like covariance, beta, quantitative risk control, as I mentioned at the beginning of this 吐槽. 吓尿了都! This has been far beyond my ability. Stop here.
To be honestly, I just tell the story of myself.
I adopt the value-based method to invest now, because I think that this is the easiest and the most accessible way. However, I am not very into valuable-investing, as I mentioned in my another review http://book.douban.com/review/5339940/. My doubt and distrust about the chart and techniques is partly because I do not have enough experience about the market and I am once an unqualified chartist. I learned various techniques and chart analysis in my first two years of investing. When turns to the modern finance theory, it enjoys both criticism and support. Besides, it is so complicated.
It is useless to argue about which method we should adopt to invest. As Hegel once said “存在即合理”. There are so many forces driving the market. No one can consistently predict either the direction of the stock market or the relative attractiveness of individual stocks. Sometimes, as this book emphsis, I believe that we should adopt the ‘buy and hold’ strategy, just as someone stand in the station, waiting the train. The train will come sooner or later. However, for the train that has accelerated, we mediocrities never have a chance to catch up.
So, believe and do what you wanna do, do not fuck the rest.
作者介绍
Burton Gordon Malkiel (born August 28, 1932) is an American economist and writer, most famous for his classic finance book A Random Walk Down Wall Street (now in its 10th edition, 2011). He is a leading proponent of the efficient market hypothesis, which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information, although he has also pointed out that some markets are evidently inefficient, exhibiting signs of non-random walk.[1]