阿尔文.托夫勒称作现实世界的一个先知,换而言之是:未来学家。1970年《未来的冲击》,1980年《第三次浪潮》。1990年《大未来》。这3部著作就成他为“美国最受公众喜爱的未来学家”。
《The Third Wave》中把人类历史归纳为3次浪潮:农业文明、工业文明、计算机文明。他认为,由于新技术浪潮的出现,发展中国家可以重新和发达国家站在同一起跑线上。
Just finish the Frontier Visionary Interview with Alvin Toffler ( http://www.hwswworld.com/uploaddownload/interview/toffler.mp3 ), I was impressed by his sharp mind as well as his talking speed, that is probably why he could made those precise predictions, such as Prosume, a combination of outsourcing and DIY
Through the interview, the following viewpoints have been drawn:
1. There is no truth, only the correctness of truth to be proved. That is the fundamental limitation of human perception of reality
2. Minority power is good in certain way; it is ridiculous a high school drop out shall have the same voting as that of post-doctor. Elite ruling is good for a less developed world for sure
3. To fix the education system, the key is not the system itself; the key is people, especially those students. How to motivate them is a key challenge, since current generation and future generations need not study and work hard in order to make a decent living as we did before
4. The causes and effects of innovation to drive knowledge creation is yet a wild land or wonderland to be fully explored
5. There is a possibility for business miniature to happen, it will be not a shame any more for one-man shop, or one-shop man
6. Where will the modern civilization head on remains an open question
7. Human intelligence will be enhanced through technology advancement
For additional info, please refer to:
Frontier Blog - http://www.hwswworld.com/wp
Frontier Space - http://www.hwswwold.com/space